Recent research suggests that there is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not seek reelection, signaling a challenging road ahead for his campaign. Despite a 60% likelihood of staying in the race, there are mounting concerns about his ability to secure a second term in office. This uncertainty comes as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess and as various Democratic elites voice their doubts about his prospects.
Brian Gardner, a chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, believes that Biden’s determination to prove his critics wrong may play a significant role in his decision-making process. Gardner argues that the more pressure Biden faces from within his own party to step down, the more resistant he becomes. This dynamic suggests that calls for Biden to drop out of the race may fall on deaf ears, as he remains steadfast in his commitment to run for reelection.
Despite growing concerns about Biden’s age and performance, those urging him to withdraw from the race may lack the necessary leverage to compel him to do so. Gardner points out that while critics can try to persuade Biden to step aside, they ultimately cannot force him out. Additionally, it is unrealistic to expect a significant portion of Biden’s loyal supporters to abandon him at this stage in the campaign.
Biden’s lackluster debate performance in June has further raised doubts about his ability to secure another term in office. This shift in sentiment is reflected in polling data and financial markets, which increasingly favor former President Donald Trump as a potential challenger. However, if Biden decides to stay in the race, Gardner suggests that there is still hope for a favorable outcome for the Democratic Party.
Despite the challenges facing Biden’s reelection bid, there is still a segment of voters who remain adamantly opposed to Trump. This unwavering support for the Democratic Party may ultimately work in Biden’s favor, even as he faces mounting criticism and doubts about his ability to lead the country for another four years.